Chaostan—"The Land of the Great Chaos"

Covering about half the earth's landmass, it has always been by far the bloodiest region on the planet.

Chaostan can affect your life more than anything that happens in your own hometown!

Since 1991, Richard Maybury has been studying Chaostan and its effects on you and your investments.

"And now, the DC power junkies are plunging more deeply into Chaostan, poking sharp sticks at the Moscow and Beijing rattlesnakes, and America will again be bitten."
                                       —Feb 2022 EWR

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Excerpt from Chaostan—The Full Story

   "War, tyranny and poverty have been the normal conditions of mankind throughout history.

   "My personal estimate is that 99% of everything good that ever happened to mankind happened in one fell swoop, in the brief period since 1776.

   "This was due to the widespread application of the two fundamental Common Law principles—they made liberty and prosperity possible.

   "After 1776, these principles began to spread around the world.

   "Unfortunately, by 1900 this movement had been choked off by the revival of socialism. Large parts of the earth never got the principles, and the largest, which I call Chaostan, is now reverting to its original condition of war, tyranny and poverty."


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What is Chaostan, and what have the CIA and Pentagon been learning about it in EWR? Read more

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Hi-Lights — July 2024 EWR

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    Excerpt from August 2022 EWR

    Lots more war coming

First published Sept 2011.

Writers for thousands of years have observed that political power corrupts the morals and the judgment.

Political power corrupts because it is itself corruption. It is the legalized privilege of using brute force on persons who have not harmed anyone.

Only governments have this privilege, and they often use it on populations of other nations as well as their own. The former is what we call war.

I think the spectacular performance of investments that do well in wartime has plenty of life left in it. The main reason is called Westphalia.

In February 2001, I began warning about federal officials erasing the 1555 Peace of Augsburg and the 1648 Peace of Westphalia. These two treaties together are generally referred to as simply Westphalia.

Key point: the treaties said no nation could invade another unless the other was a clear and present danger to them.

This was a principle of ethics drawn from…

… the venerable Common Law. My right to swing my fist ends where your nose begins.

Since 1945, Washington has been the leader of the world and the top player in international agreements and international law.

In 2001, I warned that Clinton's attack on Serbia and Bush senior's attack on Iraq were precedents replacing the ancient Westphalian principle with a more primitive Roman one.

The Roman rule says, the only justification you need to get into a war is the belief that the other side is up to no good. Clear and present danger is not required.

Neither Serbia nor Iraq were serious threats to mighty America — the very notion is laughable — but US power junkies invaded anyway.



This year [2011] on the completely unverifiable assumption the new rulers of Libya will be more ethical than Qadhafi, Obama followed the precedent of Clinton and Bush. He jumped into the North African war on the side of the Libyan rebels.

Obama's participation in the war certainly completes the demise of the Westphalian principle, but I've seen nothing about it in the mainstream press.

However, in an ARMED FORCES JOURNAL article titled "A Darwinian world — Libya points to a new era of aggression and turmoil," Colonel Robert Killebrew reports — and this is another key point — "armed intervention across international boundaries into the internal affairs of other states is now accepted," and "the 'Westphalian' ideal of noninterference in the internal affairs of other states is as dead as a doornail."

So, geopolitically, we are back to the Middle Ages. As the title of Killebrew's article indicates, whatever geopolitical ethics were in effect for centuries are gone. We are entering a dog-eat-dog Darwinian free-for-all, a "new era of aggression and turmoil."

You can hit anyone for any reason

Washington's erasure of the Westphalian principle must be one of the most extreme cases of hubris in world history. What is important about this for EWR investors is Killebrew's logical observation: as the protective function of borders evaporates, military power "matters more and more."…

I think defense stocks on balance will go on being as profitable as they have been, perhaps more so now that it's open season on everyone.

Again, EWR sounded that warning in Sept. 2011. Our defense stocks have been on a tear ever since, and I expect this to continue because…

Read more

More than Money Supply

Velocity is a term that has appeared over 1,300 times in EWR across three decades. Yet, how many know about velocity? It remains the least known and understood aspect of inflation, while it may be the most important. Only in EWR will you read about velocity and follow it as critical economic events unfold.

Velocity Estimate

The EWR Velocity Estimate has appeared in every EWR since 2008, along with Richard Maybury's latest global analysis. It is that important.

Inflation is linked to both the supply of dollars and to the speed at which those dollars change hands. It is the measure of demand for money — the willingness to hold dollars, or to let go of them in exchange for something the buyer deems equal to or of greater value.

To survive inflationary periods and recessions, you need to understand velocity.

In EWR you will follow it and know what others don't, allowing you to remain a step ahead of the economic trends that impact your daily life.

My "Uncle Eric" book, The Money Mystery, is all about velocity and this article from June-July 2008 EWR gives you an easy-to-grasp overview and understanding.

Velocity has never been more important than it is today. Start learning all about it now!

Beware Government Spending

When you see government boasting about a proposed massive spending program, you need to be aware of the difference between investment and malinvestment.

When the Federal Reserve creates new dollars, it does not inject them evenly into the economy. The new dollars do not descend upon the country in a uniform blanket. Instead, the dollars are poured—as a pitcher pours molasses—into specific economic areas or businesses, and the pouring and distribution resembles "cones."

Cones of Malinvestment

The new dollars create cones of malinvestment that will eventually have to be shaken out.

A cone of injected dollars can be a city, region, or a particular segment of the economy such as the tech industry. But never the economy or country as a whole.

The results of these cones are economic "hot spots" that create areas of new or expanded businesses that depend on a continuing flow of federal dollars.

So when you see government pushing massive new spending, be prepared for the effects that are not real investment, but are malinvestment.

The effects of new massive government spending create malinvestment that can lead to inflation and potential depression. Follow it all only in Early Warning Report

Read more in the reprint from January 2010 EWR.

Richard J Maybury

Richard J. Maybury


What makes Early Warning Report (EWR) so unique? So interesting? DEPTH.

EWR is a special blend of topics that you've probably never encountered before. Namely geopolitics, finance, economics, law, military affairs, Chaostan and the world and U.S. economies.

We don't give you a list of "hot" stock picks, expect you to believe us, and send you on your way. Rather we start with understanding the major trends affecting your investments: the debasement of currencies and law, and the threat of war in the South China Sea, for instance.

The US dollar is the world's reserve currency, and thanks to the Federal Reserve its become a shell game.

Nothing is more crucial to understand: the Federal Reserve dictates the health of the dollar, and the health of the dollar dictates your quality of life. You must know how to adapt.

But an understanding of economics isn't enough, because at bottom what really drives the ups and downs in the financial world are actions of governments.

They regulate all currencies. They create laws that control how the economy operates. They command the militaries that cause the conflicts that disrupt entire regions of the world.

Governments are capable of causing more chaos in your life than any other type of organization on earth. And they do it—constantly.

This is why EWR focuses on geopolitics (world politics).

EWR— Part Investment Advisory,
Part Economic and Geopolitical Journal

Most investment advisories focus on the particulars of a given investment. They are concerned with the internals, the technicals. Few know anything about the Big Picture—the global trends—that affect investments.

The Big Picture is Early Warning Report's specialty.

We see investment trends being primarily determined by economic trends, and economic trends determined by politics.

To forecast what our investments will do we must forecast what governments will do.

image graphic description of flow logic in geopolitics from World View of Politics to Economics to Effecs on Markets to Investment Advice

World politics changes flows of money, which alters economies, affecting markets, which produces investment profits.

But, we don't mean what the mainstream press and its government cronies call politics — Democrats, Republicans and voting. We mean the real thing: wars, revolutions, uprisings, and panics. History repeats, although never exactly.

Unfortunately, the typical investor is unaware of the full impact governments have on markets. He flies practically blind.

The world is like a chessboard, except unlike the conventional board, the number of players isn't 2, it's 206, meaning 206 governments.

To win the game, you need to know how it is played, and nobody knows the government strategies and tactics better than Early Warning Report.